Worldwide, cities are coming out of coronavirus lockdown for a phased safe return to work. One of the greatest challenges is travelling while following social distancing rules. It involves operating public transport with greatly reduced capacity. Significant changes in travel behaviour are needed.
For weeks, people across the globe have been socially distancing themselves from others. As governments start to lift the lockdown, maintaining the 2m rule is one of the biggest challenges for transport ministers and public transport operators. Simply, any mass transit will carry many fewer passengers – by some estimates 90% fewer.
At the start of May UK news media reported that, with 2m social distancing, London Underground would be able to carry only 200,000 passengers per hour, compared to 1.3M pre-COVID. Take any city in the UK with a turn-up-and-go metro, light rail or tram service and a similar capacity reduction applies. On pre-bookable rail people can be seated observing the 2m rule but, again, enormous carrying capacity is lost. Across all public transport modes, in London and cities globally, demand will exceed capacity as people return to work.
Spreading the load
On 9 May UK transport minister Grant Shapps announced a strategy for safely returning people to work. A pivotal part of it is to balance demand with reduced system capacity. Lessons for achieving this balance can be learned from cities that have hosted major sporting and cultural events. Those that host Olympiads must grapple with substantially increased passenger numbers, within the limits of their existing transport infrastructure. They use a pragmatic and systematic discipline known as travel demand management (TDM) that has been proved to keep cities moving in the UK and elsewhere in the world. TDM offers a means of getting society and economies back on the move in this period of unprecedented capacity reduction.
TDM starts with data – about routes, transport modes, capacity, demand distribution and performance. Data enables modelling of potential supply and demand, and journey options, that can be communicated to travellers and key stakeholders, to inform travel choices.
The four Rs
In 2012 the London Olympics used one of the first macro TDM programmes to successfully manage travel across all city networks and modes, keeping London moving at a time of exceptional pressure. It changed the behaviour of approximately 35% of transport users, freeing capacity for millions of visitors. The programme used four Rs to accomplish this, encouraging travellers to:
- Reduce – work from home, work from a non-city centre base, take leave
- Retime – travel outside busy peak times
- Remode – use modes of travel that are less busy, cycle and walk if possible
- Reroute – choose a route to avoid congestion
The four Rs messaging is mirrored in advice currently being given by governments across the world. The Olympics proved it to be practical and effective.
To be successful TDM requires data on transport capacity, a systematic programme of activity, clear messaging and comprehensive engagement. The Olympic approach was easy to understand and simple to use. It involved:
- modelling data to understand which parts of the public transport network were busy and when
- modelling how people should travel (considering different routes and times) to ease pressure on networks
- providing travel options to suit different travelling needs, enabling every traveller to make informed choices.
By showing how busy the system was, when and where, giving information about cycling and walking distances from major train stations to commuter districts, and informing people which roads were closed and when, TDM enabled travellers to decide what was best for them.
As well as the media, successful TDM campaigns harness the power of intermediaries such as employers and councils to provide accurate and trustworthy information to travellers.
In summer 2012 Londoners cycled and walked, travelled at quieter times, used routes they were advised were less busy, worked from home, worked from satellite offices outside of the epicentre of the Games, avoided the busy Olympic Route Network, and drove less.
All of which we need to achieve in the coming months as economies reopen.
Since 2012, macro-scale TDM has been used at the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games and 2018 Australian Gold Coast Games. Away from major events, it was brilliantly effective in keeping Sydney and Melbourne moving during lengthy periods of construction of a light rail system and a metro route, which caused major disruption on both cities’ roads: in Sydney the Travel Choices campaign focused on maintaining the economic viability of the city centre, minimised impact on the business district by spreading the morning peak on public transport. A messaging campaign targeted single occupant car journeys to reduce peak demand. TDM was needed for years rather than weeks, showing that it can produce sustained behaviour change.
With each programme, the TDM process has been honed and the resulting travel behaviour change has been greater and sustained for longer.