Plane talking

Competition has a role to play in greening all industries. Airlines have an interest in reducing their operating costs and will pursue efficiency

Many point to aviation as one of the key contributors to climate change. It’s not that clear cut, argues Laurie Price, Mott MacDonald’s director of aviation strategy.

(Article taken from our customer magazine, Momentum)

Environmental protestors made headlines in Britain in August 2007 by campaigning outside Heathrow Airport in an attempt to disrupt its operations. The point of their protest? That air travel is accelerating climate change.

In the debate about how to halt climate change, the aviation industry has been subject to intense scrutiny. Aircraft are highly visible with jets painting water vapour trails in the skies overhead. Allied to the industry’s rapid growth, it renders air transport an easy target for environmentalists.

But is the aviation industry really a major greenhouse gas emitter?

In October 2006 the UK government commissioned the Stern Review of the economic impacts of climate change. It found that in 2000 the transport sector contributed 14% of total CO2 emissions. Just 12% of that 14% total was attributable to aviation (7% international; 5% domestic). In other words, the aviation industry contributed 1.7% of global CO2 emissions. By comparison, buildings contribute 40% of the global CO2 total and power stations 24%; agriculture produces 14% of greenhouse gases – ignoring the significant but as yet unmeasured methane of bovine flatus.

By 2030 air passenger traffic is forecast to double. This could be conservative. However, the Stern Review pointed out that a doubling of air traffic would increase aviation’s share of CO2 emissions to only 2.5% by 2050. Even the highest growth forecasts suggest aviation will still only account for 5% of the global total.

"There is a delicate balance to be struck between environmental sustainability and economic and social sustainability." Laurie

Laurie price is Mott MacDonald’s director of aviation strategyThe UK government has declared its desire to see domestic aviation substituted by rail. However, attempts to curb demand for air travel by introducing taxes like air passenger duty have so far had a limited impact. Meanwhile, it is clear that heavy investment in rail would be necessary for a significant switch of transport modes.

Unless governments take unprecedented action, air travel seems set to continue growing. Competition has an important role to play in greening all industries. Airlines have a vested interest in reducing their operating costs, so will pursue fuel efficiency regardless of imposed taxes. Over the last 40 years aircraft fuel efficiency has improved 70%.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has worked with airlines to shorten more than 300 air routes through more efficient use of air space. Since 2005 this is estimated to have saved up to 27 million tonnes of CO2. The Single European Sky initiative, in which Mott MacDonald is playing an important role, aims to improve the efficiency of airspace use over Europe. A single European sky would reduce aviation industry emissions by 12 million tonnes annually.

And the industry does have a conscience. In 2001, the Advisory Council for Aeronautical Research in Europe (ACARE) committed the industry to reducing its CO2 emissions by 50% and NOx by 80% by 2020. Whilst challenging, the UK’s Royal Aeronautical Society has judged the targets achievable.

Meanwhile, the aviation industry is being held back from improving its environmental performance. Runway congestion at major airports in the UK has increased the average block time for aircraft on some short haul routes by around 50% over the last 15 years, significantly increasing fuel consumption and emissions.

There is a delicate balance to be struck between environmental sustainability and economic and social sustainability.

Aviation pays into the public purse. In the UK, the industry’s net contribution to public funds is around £7 per 1000 revenue kilometres. Over the same distance, rail receives government subsidies of around £21.

The Air Transport Action Group of IATA calculated that air travel and transport underpin 8% of world GDP, directly and indirectly supporting 29 million jobs.

Like all industries, aviation must respond responsibly to the threat of climate change. But in singling out air transport as a principal environmental threat, environmental protestors might make it appear that it is responsible for a disproportionately large share of carbon emissions. We must be careful not to deflect attention from other polluting sectors.