Decarbonisation route-maps that move with the times

In an ever-changing world, it’s important to review your route-maps and action plans for decarbonisation regularly, and to take every opportunity to work with stakeholders to identify opportunities for system-wide improvements, writes Maria Manidaki.

The last few years has seen many asset owners and sector bodies in water, transport, energy and the wider built environment develop route-maps for reaching net-zero and other specific decarbonisation targets. Route-maps are a great way to set a strategic direction for achieving a target, and to make sense of how different technical solutions and investments may help drive progress, while using scenario planning to take account of the many uncertainties and interdependencies in policy, funding streams and the wider value chain that will be encountered on the way.

We are also seeing organisations implementing action plans based on those route-maps: identifying low-regrets actions to take in the short to medium-term (such as a five-year plan) that will work in the majority of scenarios to advance along the required decarbonisation trajectory.

This is encouraging. But it is important to stress that route-maps and the action plans derived from them cannot be static: they must be continuously revised, updated and monitored. Organisations will need to continue to follow a data-driven approach, being responsive to what data is telling them about their carbon emissions, changes in external factors and the relative success of the actions taken. Adaptability must be your watchword. Where your route-map involves emerging solutions that are not at present commercially available at scale (eg some hydrogen applications, innovative low carbon materials) this presents a level of uncertainty, and you may well need to adapt your plans as the costs and viability of these solutions become clearer.

It is not just technology: there are many aspects of your external environment which are changing all the time. Government policy, regulation, the supply chain’s ability to deliver, the preferences and behaviour of customers; all can shift relatively quickly and some policy and global market trends present important transition risks. The more you can anticipate these risks and overlay them to your plan, the better you will be able to adapt to circumstances and avoid planning for assets that may become stranded or too expensive to operate over time.

Another category of risk that obviously needs to be incorporated in this process is future climate hazards. For example, your plan may involve the use of nature-based solutions at large scale to achieve carbon reductions, -sequestration and other benefits, and the use of renewable energy sources. But how might a hotter climate, changes in rainfall, wind or frequent extreme weather events affect the performance and viability of these solutions, and the long-term efficiency of any assets that you are planning?

Organisations need to continue to follow a data-driven approach, being responsive to what data is telling them… adaptability must be your watchword.

Maria Manidaki

Technical principal: carbon net zero, water consultancy division

Some long-term changes are foreseeable, but others are less so. Few transport planners drawing up route-maps and action plans before 2020 would have anticipated the rise in remote working that has followed the COVID-19 pandemic. Tools and techniques that incorporate scenario planning – such as our FUTURES Toolkit – can help you revisit your thinking and test new scenarios where events make this necessary.

It’s probably not possible, and certainly not advisable, to do all this thinking and planning in isolation. You need to work with stakeholders to understand the interdependencies that exist across sector and geographical boundaries, and to find solutions collaboratively. Many technologies and approaches with decarbonisation potential, such as the use of hydrogen, nature-based solutions, alternatives to cement in concrete, or the large-scale use of waste heat, will need commercial structures and/or incentives to support them, which can only be developed alongside government, regulators, industry bodies and the wider supply chain. The updated PAS2080 specification, which we are co-authoring and was out for consultation in July 2022, gives guidance to the value chain in the built environment on working with multiple stakeholders in this way. We would encourage asset owners, who are the main decarbonisation lever, to not only engage with those below them in the value chain but with their peers in other sectors, and regulators, planners and different levels of government, to really understand what system level opportunities exist and how their own projects or programmes of work may align or not to a regional or national net-zero target.

We can always achieve more when we work together, and this applies to organisations and sectors alike. Working with partners, we have co-developed route-maps for Water UK, National Highways, the Environment Agency and other industrial clients. They can help you set a visible strategic direction towards net-zero and other intermediate decarbonisation targets, but they should never be set in stone: you should always remain agile, respond to changes in your industry and the wider world, and continue to move with the times.

This article is part of a series we published to celebrate the 10th annual Carbon Crunch, our event for infrastructure stakeholders focusing on carbon management and resilience.