What Dubai needs for a successful transport transition

An effective mobility strategy is more than a collection of different modes of transport. Decisions about how Dubai shifts to a more sustainable, integrated transport system will have a major impact on the efficiency and livability of the city. Mott MacDonald's Dragana Valjarevic, future mobility lead, and Johann Brits, transport planning lead for Dubai, share advice on how to plan for a successful transport transition.

Dubai’s transport system needs to go through a major transformation to meet the needs of its growing population, while also lowering carbon emissions. The city’s metro system is expanding but too few residential communities have fast, convenient and sustainable transport connections across the city.

Anyone travelling to work by car over the years will have experienced the traffic congestion becoming much more noticeable in spite of continuous road improvement projects.

New sustainable modes of transport are evolving but implementation and uptake have been lagging. If the user experience is relatively poor compared to a car then it creates barriers to change. People won’t make the switch if connections are inefficient and travel times are long; if sustainable modes are less safe or perceived that way; or if flexibility and comfort is not on a par with expectations.

An effective mobility strategy is more than a collection of different modes of transport, or a package of infrastructure projects. There are many ambitious plans, but we also need to focus on getting the transition phase right if we want people to change behaviour and make the city a better home for the many that choose it and arrive every year.

Communities need supporting infrastructure to encourage people to cycle, walk or scoot instead of drive. Some developers do provide direct access to micromobility solutions from their buildings and have integrated facilities, such as lockers, changing rooms and showers, but a consistent approach is needed across the city.

As highlighted in the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan, transport needs to be an integrated part of urban planning from day one. The way to achieve consistency is through understanding what this guidance means for individual developments and embracing the call to action every step of the way from planning to delivery, and also while operating and improving developments.

Below are some ideas to better understand the aspirations of the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan and to guide a successful transition.

1. Effective land use

When urban planning includes the right mix of land uses and transport options from the start, land can be used more effectively and cities become more livable.

Transit-oriented development is one approach that can optimise land use around public transport hubs and key visitor locations, making public transit more convenient for more users. Higher capacity modes, such as metros, should be prioritised – stations need to be integrated and central to the development of areas.

Land use should encourage self-sufficient communities by co-locating amenities, services and employment where they can be accessed by residents within a 20- to 30-minute walk, reducing reliance on transport systems to meet daily needs.

Pedestrian microsimulation modelling is an important method used to develop an understanding of how people move around spaces. It facilitates human-scale planning and design, an approach that promotes the mobility of people around neighbourhoods and mobility hubs, rather than focusing on car-centric infrastructure.

This is vital for greenfield developments, and we are seeing great examples of seamless connectivity between transport systems and key attractions, such as shopping malls. Infrastructure that facilitates human-scale connectivity draws in customers from a wider catchment, which increases economic and leisure activity, but also improves livability for residents, making communities sought after in the long run.

2. Efficient feeder systems

Dubai’s new and existing masterplan developments need efficient feeder systems, local transit systems that provide good connections into mass transit systems, such as the Dubai metro.

Low-density residential development is in high demand and can be challenging to serve effectively. Feeder services take many forms and can be a great solution to the sprawl problem.  Bike share and e-scooter schemes are good options because they have low carbon impact and are easy to implement in greenfield developments and to retrofit into existing areas.

More substantial feeder systems can add significant capacity and be integrated with existing transport infrastructure. Recent feasibility studies have shown the potential of suspended transit systems to act as efficient feeders, expanding the catchment area of the metro to less accessible neighbourhoods.

Adaptability and flexibility are essential as demand for these new modes of transport evolves, and connections with new metro lines and stations become possible. While some feeder systems will remain as feeders, others could be extended to provide efficient point-to-point transport across the city over time.

3. User-friendly micromobility schemes

Encouraging active travel on foot, bike or e-scooter is a top priority for policymakers as it is the most sustainable way to travel, creating minimal emissions. A greater focus on user-friendly policies and guidance is needed for the success of micromobility schemes. Users need to feel safe using e-scooters or bikes and confident they can navigate from A to B using a safe and legal route.

Better understanding of the needs of end users can provide valuable insights about attitudes to micromobility, such as user expectations about speed restrictions, segregation from buses and cars, and the types of journeys they might take. This can inform decisions about development of rights of way, the location of micromobility hubs and the viability of schemes.

4. Testing new technologies

Testing technologies in a proof-of-concept phase provides evidence of how technologies and users are responding. Pilot schemes are more likely to succeed when all stakeholders come together to ensure the technology, infrastructure, regulations and operating environment is ready.

Dubai needs to get as close to real-world pilot projects as possible when testing proposed trackless trams, suspended transit and RailBus systems by implementing these projects where real commuter transport demand exists.  This will give regulators, infrastructure developers, operators and technology service providers confidence about how to deploy new modes effectively and achieve economic viability.

5. Keeping masterplans flexible

Reallocating space away from cars is currently not a popular strategy to enhance livability, but having the flexibility to do so in future can significantly increase the potential value of a development.

Transport and land use masterplans need to be developed with flexibility and adaptability in mind. Key stakeholders should be consulted at different stages of transition, not just at the start. Policymakers and planning bodies need robust processes for deciding when and where to prioritise one mode of transport over another.

Digital tools and models, drawing on the best available data and experience, can help to look at a problem from every angle. For example, user profiles and demographic analysis can reveal how a transport system and land use mix translate to the user experience of different population groups. This is ultimately what drives the value proposition and selection of one masterplan over another.

Travel demand modeling can help to calculate the likely demand for mobility based on demographic analysis. It can also be used for scenario testing to ensure masterplans are future ready and can be adapted as travel behaviour evolves.

6. Building consensus about the future

Consultation helps to open up new thinking, understand barriers to change and ultimately develop a shared strategy for the future that people want. Our FUTURES planning approach encourages the engagement of diverse public and private stakeholders, decision makers and end-users in discussions about how to shape a preferred mobility strategy.

Our ‘Futures and Foresight’ approach started in the UK, before expanding globally and regionally in the Middle East, where we have successfully aligned stakeholder expectations on a number of projects.

Globally, we have successfully applied this approach to many projects, including for the Department for Transport in the UK. Some of the challenges we have explored using this approach include the future of rail, road mapping technology options for decarbonising transport and considering the potential role of artificial intelligence in the transport system.