Nigeria becomes the first African country to launch an updated 2050 Calculator to support low-carbon development

The Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN), the Federal Ministry of Environment and the British Embassy Abuja have jointly launched an updated version of the Nigeria Energy Calculator 2050 (NECAL 2050), a bespoke energy and emissions model to assist Nigeria in achieving its climate goals.

The present version of the NECAL 2050 Calculator – a tool that allows users to trial different options for reducing emissions at a faster rate and to build a pathway that meets long-term emission targets to 2050 – is designed to help industries and the energy sector to set their greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, as well as to identify realistic solutions which support the implementation of Nigeria’s climate commitments, also known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

The update – the first in Africa – was delivered under the UK Government’s international 2050 Calculator programme, which is funded by the UK’s International Climate Finance, and was led by global engineering, management and development consultancy Mott MacDonald, and a consortium which includes Imperial College, Climact and Ricardo.

Nigeria has submitted updated NDCs, which include new mandates for industries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The new NECAL 2050 Calculator reflects the prevailing policies, ongoing efforts in energy supply and demand, and proposes reference scenarios on energy production and consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from 2015 to 2050. The new version includes updates to six sectors: Transport, buildings, industry, CO2 removal & gases, electricity and land, and bioenergy & waste.

British High Commissioner, Catriona Laing, said: “The launch of the Nigeria Energy Calculator 2050 further strengthens bilateral collaboration between the UK and Nigeria on the clean energy transition. Nigeria’s energy sector accounts for 60 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions and the sector is also key to the delivery of Nigeria’s many development priorities; it is therefore critical to understand the options that are available to reduce emissions while matching energy supply and demand.

I look forward to seeing the NECAL2050 tool supporting different sectors of government to design and deliver high-quality policies that enhance the conditions for strong governance, growth, job creation and poverty reduction.”

Dr Abdulwaheed Ahmed, Energy Policy Planning & Analysis, at ECN shared: “The Nigeria Energy Calculator 2050 is an interactive Energy Planning tool that enables high level policy makers to appreciate, at a glance, energy development pathways that are either climate-friendly or otherwise. The first Nigerian Calculator developed in 2015 was one of the tools used in the determination of Nigeria’s NDCs in its commitment to climate change mitigations under the Federal Ministry of Environment. The NECAL 2050 will support Nigeria’s reporting to the UNFCCC, the National Biennial Update Report, The National Inventory Report in addition to alignment with the NDCs and the Nigeria Energy Transitional Plan (ETP).”

Jessica Brislin-Higgs, senior climate and sustainability consultant for Mott MacDonald and programme country manager for Nigeria, noted: “Nigeria is a pioneer – it is the first African country to produce an updated Calculator model. We would like to acknowledge the expertise and diligence of the core technical team at the Energy Commission of Nigeria, with support from the Federal Ministry of Environment, who have worked tirelessly on this project. These efforts are highly appreciated and will go far towards changing the trajectory of sustainable development in Nigeria.”

The NECAL 2050 is an open-source, user-friendly model. Unlike other energy models, the tool can be used by governments, stakeholders, academia and the public alike, including schoolchildren, to inform debate about which policies will be most effective in tackling energy challenges and reducing emissions.

The Nigeria 2050 Calculator is available at: NECAL2050