Supporting the implementation of mandatory biodiversity net gain

Opportunity

With biodiversity net gain (BNG) becoming mandatory from January 2024, Natural England was seeking information and advice on how to anticipate demand for the last resort statutory credits from developers. Statutory credits are the last resort option for developers unable to deliver the BNG they need onsite or via purchasing off-site biodiversity units.

To assist in plugging information gaps for intertidal and watercourse habitats, Natural England commissioned Mott MacDonald to assess BNG markets for these habitats across England.

Solution

Our Nature Service team and economists in out Cities Studio practice conducted a joint market assessment for BNG units for interdial and watercourse habitats based on:

• Demand: Future developments over the next 15 years were modelled based on local plan data. Developer's behaviour was also assessed to capture the most likely route for BNG delivery - on-site, off-site or statutory credits - depending on site specifications.
• Supply: Watercourse and interdial habitats in England were mapped to understand the availability of habitats in local BNG markets. Constraints and opportunities for delivering this supply were assessed, inclduing suppliers' readiness to enter the market.
• Demand/supply balance: The balance between demand and supply was estimated at a local planning authority level to provide evidence of potential scarcity of supply. This supported forecast demand for statutory credits.

Our work mobilised geographic information systems (GIS), ecologist and economics capabilities to provide Natural England with a comprehensive picture of the likely state of the market once BNG became mandatory, and the potential demand for statutory credits.

Outcome

OUr work supported Natural England's role as facilitator for emerging BNG markets by equipping the organisation with the required information to mitigate market gaps and constraints. Our deliverables included key recommendations for supporting the readiness of the market and strengthening Natural England's role.