Climate change is putting the UK’s infrastructure at risk – we contributed to CCRA4-IA to inform our industry’s response

CCRA4‑IA insights on UK infrastructure climate risk and adaptation

Nikki van Dijk, technical director – climate resilience and a contributor to CCRA4-IA’s Technical Report, discusses why the new report is an important milestone and the next steps for understanding climate risk and adaptation in the UK.

Climate change means increasing risk to the UK, including its infrastructure systems. The physical risks associated with it, such as increasingly frequent wildfires and more severe storms, are already causing widely reported damage and disruption. In January 2025, the extraordinarily powerful Storm Eowyn saw winds above 150km/h, several tragic fatalities and widespread disruption and damage to homes, businesses and infrastructure that insurers reported cost over £652M.

Climate risk is a whole-of-society challenge, so infrastructure systems need to play their part in responding. Infrastructure assets and operations are exposed to climate risk but also play an essential role in community resilience and adaptation – staying safe, responding and recovering when risks, such as extreme weather events, do strike.

The ability for infrastructure providers to maintain and improve the services and outcomes people rely on will increasingly depend on how well our sector understands and adapts to those risks.

The Climate Change Committee (CCC)’s newly published Independent Assessment for the 4^th Climate Change Risk Assessment (known as CCRA4-IA) supports government, regulators, communities, asset owners and our industry to take evidence-based action toward the aim of a better adapted UK. It provides a clear, independent view on this increasingly vital subject.

We contributed to CCRA4-IA, supporting the Met Office consortium for the technical report on its Infrastructure chapter, because Mott MacDonald’s work places it at the forefront of understanding climate risks in the UK. From this experience, the value of the assessment in underpinning effective adaptation action is clear.

Why is the CCRA process important for the infrastructure sector?

Every five years, the Climate Change Act 2008 requires the government to publish an assessment of the UK’s climate risks and priorities for adaptation. The next CCRA will be the fourth iteration and is due for publication by early 2027. It includes an underpinning technical report – the evidence and analysis – and a Well-Adapted UK Report, which lays out practical priorities and opportunities for government and society.

The CCRA plays a foundational role in supporting better adaptation because it informs the government’s approach to policymaking, such as the National Adaptation Programme, which uses the CCRA as its basis to put adaption priorities into action across government. That can include how departments can work with industry and civil society, how regulators can engage and set requirements for their sectors, and the funding that’s made available to support adaptation and resilience initiatives.

What are the key messages from CCRA4-IA for the infrastructure sector?

CCRA4-IA includes a review of risk and adaptation priorities for the infrastructure sector.

It points out that climate change is already leading to extreme weather events, which are harming the UK’s infrastructure systems and the communities relying on them. The technical report offers an in-depth review of various infrastructure sectors, with overarching findings to consider:

• Climate change and its impacts will continue to intensify, so it’s urgent that the UK’s infrastructure assets are better adapted for the hazards it profiles, including higher temperatures, increased flooding, wildfires, higher sea-levels and coastal erosion.
• Crucially, it highlights that the interdependent nature of infrastructure systems magnifies the risk. For example, a climate hazard that damages energy infrastructure could have knock-on impacts for other types of infrastructure, like water or transport.
• Better understanding and quantifying the impact of climate change on the condition and exposure of assets is important. While there are opportunities to design and engineer new infrastructure for a changing climate, many of our existing infrastructure systems were built to have a long operational lifecycle and are now at risk from climate change.
• The transformation of systems such as energy and road transport toward net zero means there are opportunities to act, but it also means that new vulnerabilities may emerge. Infrastructure providers will need to consider how their systems will change over time.

CCRA4-IA can act as a big step toward a better adapted infrastructure sector.

CCRA4-IA’s risks will inform effective adaptation reporting

The technical report’s review of the infrastructure sector also highlights the importance of the Adaptation Reporting Power (ARP) as a good mechanism for developing the evidence needed to respond effectively. They’re linked – the risks that the CCRA4-IA identifies will shape how asset owners and service providers report at the organisation level, as well as the risks and priorities they need to address.

The ARP enables the Environment Secretary to either request or require providers of key public services – including infrastructure – to assess risks from climate change and the progress being made toward adaptation. ARP reports help build the granular insight needed to further refine the approach government and regulators can take in their sectors. It also provides an effective framework through which reporting organisations can better future-proof their continued outcomes by making robust adaptation plans and reporting on their progress.

The next ARP round, ARP5, is expected to begin later this year, following a consultation by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on its aims and design that recently closed.

Building on the challenges raised by the technical report, it’s expected to focus on:

• Continuing to better understand each reporting organisation’s interdependencies – addressing one of CCRA4-IA’s key challenges for infrastructure.
• Improving the quantification of risk and the costs and benefits of different adaptation expectations.
• Expanding the types of infrastructure requested to provide reports, to include ICT, communications, data centres, local roads and highways and ports.

What next?

The government will now consider the CCRA4-IA’s independent insight and evidence and will bring its next CCRA to Parliament by early 2027.

For the infrastructure sector, it will be important to absorb CCRA4-IA’s evidence and insight and its implications for the outcomes the sector is seeking to achieve. Infrastructure owners and operators must then prepare to update and deliver effective adaptation reporting as part of ARP5. That will include gathering the data and evidence needed to understand the risks reporting organisations face and the progress being made to address them.

While the challenges of climate risk are present and growing, CCRA4-IA can act as a big step toward a better adapted infrastructure sector – taking effective, targeted action to safeguard the best possible outcomes.