The biggest handback risk is also the most avoidable: starting too late

Late mobilisation remains one of the most consistent drivers of cost, risk and tension in PFI handback. Mott MacDonald commercial director Katherine Jackson explains more in the second of a series of five blogs on the topic of PFI handback.

Many PFI handback challenges are not driven by complexity alone, but by when that complexity is addressed.

A common pattern is preparation starting too late. Expiry can feel distant, but once asset condition, data gaps and lifecycle delivery are tested, the scale of work required becomes clear very quickly.

UK Government guidance often points to around seven years before expiry as the point to begin structured preparation. This timing matters because it sits ahead of key lifecycle planning cycles, creating an opportunity to act rather than react.

When mobilisation is delayed, essential activities become compressed: establishing a baseline, validating data, running surveys, forecasting deterioration, planning remediation and aligning expectations. As pressure rises, collaboration tends to fall – and positions harden.

This is when familiar issues emerge: late-stage surprises, diverging expectations and increasing reliance on incomplete evidence.

Using time deliberately

The alternative is to use time as a strategic advantage.

Putting structure in place early allows obligations to be mapped, assumptions to be tested and risks to be identified before they escalate. Tools such as deterioration modelling and whole-life forecasting provide early visibility, enabling targeted intervention rather than reactive action.

Not every uncertainty can be removed. But where preparation begins early, surprises become far less likely, and that is often what distinguishes a controlled handback from a contentious one.